SURPRISE, ARIZONA · SEPTEMBER 2026
What’s changed in 4 years?
What the data means for today’s buyers and sellers.
Some homes in Surprise sell quickly. Others sit for months. Buyers see price reductions, while sellers still hear about homes attracting strong offers.
What explains the difference? A closer look at local sales, listing history, and available homes reveals a market that varies considerably by price range and property.
The big picture: buyers are still purchasing homes, but selling generally takes more time, concessions are common, and the competition changes with your price range.
What did we study?
We reviewed approximately four years of Surprise home sales and listing history, then added a snapshot of homes available in September 2026.
Together, these records show what buyers purchased, which listing attempts ended without a sale, and what sellers are competing against today.
Homes sold
Completed sales showing prices, selling time, and reported seller concessions.
Canceled listings
Listing agreements that ended before a sale closed under that listing number.
Expired listings
Listing agreements that reached their expiration date without a recorded closing.
Homes available
Listings marked active in the September 2026 snapshot.
One home can appear more than once. A property may be canceled, relisted, and later sold. These are 21,162 listing records—not 21,162 different homes.
The history begins in September 2022. The graphs follow complete three-month periods, called quarters. The available-home count is a separate September 2026 snapshot.
Price per square foot has softened
Across the complete quarters studied, the median sold price stayed between approximately $412,000 and $432,000. That relatively narrow range can make the market look unchanged.
But price per square foot tells another part of the story. After moving up and down earlier in the period, it generally declined during 2025 and reached approximately $223 in the second quarter of 2026.
The price-per-square-foot trend
Median sold price per square foot · Surprise residential closings
Complete quarters: October 2022–June 2026. Bars start at zero. Labels rounded to whole dollars; underlying calculations use unrounded values. On smaller screens, swipe across the graph.
This does not measure the change in value of the same home. Different properties sell each quarter. Size, condition, location, and features all affect the results.
For buyers
Use recent comparable sales to help assess value. An older asking price does not establish what a home is worth today.
For sellers
A stable citywide median does not guarantee that an earlier pricing expectation still matches your competition.
Homes are taking longer to sell
Median reported market time for completed sales increased from 48 days in the final quarter of 2022 to 67 days in the second quarter of 2026.
There were faster and slower periods along the way, but the recent quarters generally show longer selling times.
The selling-time trend
Median reported days on market · Surprise residential closings
Complete quarters: October 2022–June 2026. Bars start at zero. Days shown are the median reported market time for listings that closed. On smaller screens, swipe across the graph.
The active listings show an additional challenge: 430 homes had been on the market for at least 90 days. Of those, 151 had accumulated at least 180 days.
For buyers
You may have time to compare options, but a well-positioned home can still attract competition.
For sellers
Allow for a realistic marketing period. Review showing activity and feedback instead of assuming more time alone will produce an offer.
Your price range matters
The September snapshot contained 1,238 active listings. During June through August, 1,007 homes closed—about 336 per month.
That works out to approximately 3.7 months of supply across the residential listings analyzed.
What does “months of supply” mean? It compares the number of available homes with the recent monthly sales pace. It does not predict how long your particular home will take to sell.
Supply changes with your price range
September 2026 active inventory / average monthly closings, June–August 2026
All bars use the same 0–10 month scale. Active listings are grouped by asking price; closed listings by sold price. Includes multiple residential property types. Supply is an estimate, not a forecast of selling time.
The contrast is substantial: approximately 2.5 months of supply at $300,000–$399,999, compared with 8.3 months at $800,000 and above.
The under-$300,000 category includes a different mix of housing types. It should not be treated as one uniform market for entry-level detached houses.
For buyers
Higher-priced segments have more inventory relative to recent purchases. Your negotiating position still depends on the individual home.
For sellers
Your price range is a better starting point than a citywide headline when evaluating how much competition you face.
Price is only part of the negotiation
More than half of the active listings had an asking price below their original asking price. Among those reduced listings, the median reduction was $15,000.
Seller concessions also became more common. They were reported on approximately 48% of closings in late 2022 and 65% in the second quarter of 2026.
A seller concession is assistance negotiated as part of the sale, such as a contribution toward eligible buyer closing costs. The amount and permitted use depend on the transaction and any financing requirements.
For buyers, the purchase price and negotiated assistance both deserve attention. For sellers, compare the expected proceeds and conditions of each offer—not just the number at the top.
Some homes sell on a later attempt
A canceled or expired listing does not necessarily mean the home never sold.
In the historical records, 2,234 canceled or expired listings match a later closing by parcel number and address. Some homes had multiple marketing attempts before a completed sale.
This history provides useful context, but it does not tell us why an agreement ended or prove that a particular pricing or marketing change caused the later sale.
What this means for your next move
If you are buying: focus on comparable sales, the home’s condition, and the alternatives available in the same area and price range. Negotiating room depends on the property and the seller’s circumstances.
If you are selling: compare your home with both recent sales and the homes competing for buyers today. Showing activity and feedback help reveal whether your price, presentation, and terms are connecting with buyers.
The most useful question is: what is happening among the homes that compete with the one you want to buy or sell?
As a Surprise resident since 2006 and a Realtor licensed since 2013, I help buyers and sellers connect the local numbers to their individual goals.
YOUR HOME. YOUR COMMUNITY. YOUR GOALS.
Let’s look at your part of Surprise.
Get a closer look at your neighborhood, price range, and current competition.
Todd Pooler | Realty ONE Group
Surprise, Arizona, and the surrounding West Valley
